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FantasyDraft MLB: Sunday Values

Juan Carlos Blanco

Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for close to 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, and the NFL for Rotowire.com, including serving as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' beat writer. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports.

PITCHER

Zack Godley, ARI at ATL ($16,800): Godley has scored between 19.55 and 26.75 fantasy points in his last five starts, and he has a 2.65 ERA, .235 BAA and .272 wOBA allowed over 37.1 road innings this year. Meanwhile, the Braves have a 24.8 percent strikeout rate and .282 wOBA over 101 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home this month, along with a subpar .135 ISO and 27.8 percent hard contact rate. Godley has also racked up at least six strikeouts in six of his last seven starts, making him a solid play for either cash games or GPPs.

Trevor Cahill, SD vs. SF ($15,000): Cahill has scored more than 20 fantasy points in multiple starts this season, and he has a 0.49 ERA, .115 BAA, .183 wOBA allowed and 20 strikeouts over 18.1 home innings. He now faces a Giants squad that has a 22.0 percent strikeout rate and .241 wOBA over 141 plate appearances against right-handed pitching on the road in July. While the fact he often doesn’t go deep in games is of some concern, Cahill has found a way to offset that by racking up at least six strikeouts in all but one of his nine starts.

INFIELD

Joey Votto, CIN vs. WAS ($10,200): Votto has a .473 wOBA, .317 ISO, 1.179 OPS and 37.9 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching at home, along with a .430 wOBA overall this month. Nationals starter Tanner Roark has a
7.90 ERA while allowing a .384 wOBA and 33.1 percent hard contact rate over his last seven starts (35.1 innings). Additionally, he has allowed a .374 wOBA, 6.41 xFIP and 2.14 HR/9 to left-handed hitters on the road this year, while the Nationals' bullpen has surrendered a .389 wOBA and 30.0 percent line drive rate in the same split over the last month.

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS at CIN ($8,400): Reds starter Homer Bailey has allowed a .530 wOBA, 5.41 xFIP and 3.38 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season, and he was was battered in his one previous home start this season. Zimmerman has seen a price drop because of recent struggles, but he still has a .401 wOBA, .247 ISO, 24.1 percent HR/FB rate and 40.8 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching this year. Reds relievers make for fine targets as well, considering they have a 6.31 ERA while allowing a .347 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home in the last month.

Miguel Cabrera, DET vs. TOR ($6,400): Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada, who has given up 10 home runs in 58.2 innings on the road this year, has allowed a .361 wOBA and 5.19 xFIP to right-handed hitters, as well as a 32.3 percent hard contact rate to them on the road. Meanwhile, Cabrera has a .390 wOBA and .266 ISO at home this year, and a 25.9 percent HR/FB rate and 48.8 percent hard contact rate against right-handed pitching there. He’s sporting a 53.6 percent hard contact rate over 39 July plate appearances as well, while the Toronto bullpen has a 5.18 ERA while allowing a .350 wOBA to righty bats on the road in the last month.

OUTFIELD

George Springer, HOU vs. MIN ($10,800): Springer comes in with a .400 wOBA, .296 ISO, 32.3 percent HR/FB rate and 36.4 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching at home, including with a jaw-dropping .550 wOBA, .368 ISO and 48.4 percent hard contact rate this month. Twins starter Kyle Gibson has given up a .387 wOBA, 37.5 percent HR/FB rate and 37.6 percent hard contact rate to righty bats this year, and he has really struggled in his last two starts, posting a 7.59 ERA while allowing a .397 wOBA, 42.9 percent HR/FB rate and 45.0 percent hard contact rate in 10.2 innings.

Nelson Cruz, SEA at CWS ($9,300): White Sox starter Derek Holland has given up 18 of his 19 homers this season to right-handed hitters, along with a .386 wOBA, 5.32 xFIP and 40.9 percent hard contact rate. Meanwhile, Cruz has blasted lefties for a .389 wOBA and 35.7 percent hard contact rate. The White Sox bullpen has also struggled against righty bats, posting a 4.80 ERA while allowing a .350 wOBA to them at home over the last month.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at BAL ($7,600): Schwarber has homered in two of his last three games and gets a crack at Orioles starter Ubaldo Jimenez, who’s given up a .425 wOBA (including .459 at home) and 14 homers to left-handed hitters this year. Schwarber’s average is still under the Mendoza Line, but he has slugged 13 of his 14 homers on the season against righties and boasts a .258 ISO, 21.3 percent HR/FB rate and 33.6 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness. Furthermore, Jimenez has an 8.10 ERA while allowing a .397 wOBA over his last 20 innings, while the Baltimore bullpen has a 6.11 ERA and a .399 wOBA allowed to lefty batters at Camden Yards in the last month.

UTILITY

Aaron Judge, NYY at BOS ($10,800): As good as Red Sox starter Rick Porcello was at Fenway last season, he’s often come unraveled there this year, generating a 5.34 ERA and allowing a .358 wOBA and 40.8 percent hard contact rate over 60.2 home innings. He’s been touched up by righty bats for a .376 wOBA and 39.8 percent hard contact rate there, while Judge sports a .450 wOBA, .344 ISO, 42.6 percent HR/FB rate and 49.4 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

Eric Thames, MIL vs. PHI ($8,800): Thames has a .465 wOBA, .417 ISO, 1.142 OPS and 50.0 percent hard contact rate over his first 30 plate appearances this month, and he owns a .405 wOBA, .317 ISO, 26.6 percent HR/FB rate and 43.0 percent hard contact rate versus right-handed pitching on the season. Those numbers bode well against Phillies starter Jeremy Hellickson, who’s allowed a .347 wOBA and 6.50 xFIP to left-handed hitters, along with a 35.0 percent hard contact rate when facing them on the road.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.