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Using the Coverwire Method

The upcoming basketball season is the third year that Coverwire.com will provide it's predicted game scores and excellent analysis online. For years we've used our skills to develop what we think is the best computer analysis programs for predicting NBA game outcomes. Even though we think it's the best, we're not going to stop trying to improve our system. We are always looking for a way to get better and provide you with a more accurate bet. Let's first start with how this system can help you place an educated bet.

The main focus our the Coverwire system is the predicted game scores. The strength of every bet is based on the predicted final score of each game and here's how it works. Our analysis will predict a final score for every game on a particular day. Using that predicted final score we can come up with a predicted line on the game. By comparing that predicted line with the real line we can see which teams are better bets to cover. We call this difference between predicted and actual the "Line Diff" of each game. Looking at the data we can see that the farther the Line Diff is from zero, the greater chance that our prediction will cover. Here are the results from the last two seasons.

Line Diff Win Loss Win %
8 and up 70 47 59.8%
6 to 8 150 123 54.9%
4.5 to 5.5 126 147 46.2%
0 to 4 578 611 48.6%

As you can see from the table, the chances of placing a winning bet increase as the Line Diff increases. You can use this as a guide to you betting amount, depending on the strength of the bet. We recommend that you bet every game where the Line Diff is six or more (greater than 6 or less than -6). In the past we have used 4.5 as the turning point, but more in depth analysis has found that 6 will be more beneficial over the long term. There will certianly be some seasons where a lower Line Diff will pay off, but that will usually get balanced out in later seasons and should be played with caution.

Ranging Your Wager Amount

Because our system gives you a guide to the strength of the bet, you can maximize your winnings by ranging your wager amount depending on the Line Diff. The first thing you must do is decide on a unit bet that fits your bankroll. You should make a point of keeping your unit bet to less than 4% of your bankroll in order to keep from going broke.

Our research has found that this betting scale is best to maximize winnings with our system.

Line Diff Wager
6 1 Unit
6.5 1 Unit
7 1 Unit
7.5 2 Units
8 and up 3 Units

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