On Saturday's seven-game slate, the marquee matchup that should showcase the most fantasy goodness is Golden State at Philadelphia, where the over/under of 230 blows every other game out of the water. This puts three of our top-five players in the biggest game of the night, and despite the limited options, it's entirely possible to spend up on two of them. That's something to consider, but it's possible to hit this game at a lower price as well.
Kevin Durant ($50) is where I will spend up Saturday. He lit up the Sixers for 49 YFP in their meeting last week, and I don't see that number moving much. Conversely, Ben Simmons returned to Earth in that game, so it isn't a week to blow $48 on him. You could spend $100 here and go with Durant and Curry in a GPP and go low with everyone else, but below we'll go through some other options, including other ways to hit this game.
Kemba Walker, CHA vs. LAC ($38): Walker is on an insane three-game tear where he's lit up the Bulls, Mavericks and Celtics for 87 points. Throw in the assists and rebounds and you've got on heck of a value at $38. He'll face a backcourt that is middle of the pack defensively against point guards, and Walker should have no problem finding his spots.
Klay Thompson, GS at PHI ($28): Thompson has a super-high ceiling and can produce video game-like numbers when hot. A few more boards and assists in his last tangle with Philly would have put him well into the 30s in YFP, which is where I see his output going.
Other guards to consider: Evan Fournier, ORL vs. UTAH ($28), Donovan Mitchell, UTA at ORL ($22), Lou Williams, LAC at CHA ($21)
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Guard to Avoid:
Eric Gordon, HOU at MEM ($27): In case you didn't notice, Gordon played the Chris Paul role while he was sidelined, and though he has a great reputation as one of the league's best sixth men, he no longer warrants a salary in the high 20s with CP3 back. He won't reach value there, so it's best to fade him until his price comes down.
Draymond Green, GS at PHI ($36): At least one of your GPP's should be all Golden State and Philadelphia players, but Green is a chalk everywhere as he had one of the best nights of his career against Philly last week. He went off for 52.5 YFP against them, which crushes value at $36. Cash, tournaments, he's chalk everywhere.
Wesley Johnson, LAC at CHA, ($11): This is a GPP play only, but Johnson had a 50 YFP game in his last outing and has been at least serviceable in other contests while replacing Danilo Gallinari (hip) in the starting lineup. He merits a mention as the best spend-down candidate on the slate.
Other forwards to consider: Blake Griffin, LAC at CHA ($42), Jayson Tatum, BOS at ATL ($22), Ryan Anderson, HOU at MEM ($19)
Forward to Avoid:
Robert Covington, PHI vs. GS ($30): Covington had his third-lowest output of the season when he last faced the Warriors, with his rebounds taking the biggest hit. Durant and Green had their way with him, and I don't see the needle moving in the other direction Saturday.
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You may be tempted to go with Joel Embiid ($44), but he had one of his worst games of the year against the Warriors. You could take a GPP flier on him, but he's at risk of falling well short of value at this price.
Al Horford, BOS ($29) versus Dewayne Dedmon, ATL ($16): Both had great nights when they last met, so conventional wisdom says that you should take Dedmon at the cheaper price. Horford, though, has been more consistent in the past few games. It all depends on how much cash you have to spend, but I like them both.
DeAndre Jordan, LAC at CHA ($26): Rest alert? Forty minutes and 22 rebounds on Friday might warrants some recovery time, but he has come back with a stronger game in ALL of his back-to-backs this season. This might be the first time that doesn't happen due to his monster game on the front end, but the pattern is too good to fade.
Other centers to consider: Marc Gasol, MEM vs. HOU ($36), Clint Capela, HOU at MEM ($30)
CENTER TO AVOID
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. SAC ($31): I've avoided the Blazers and Kings on this slate due to the insanely low over/under and blowout potential. Nurkic could have a decent matchup, but his ceiling in this one is too low to warrant spending $30-plus on him. I'll trust Vegas on this one.