I've picked every NFL game against the spread for the last 19 years, and if I've learned anything, it's that making money after paying the rake is hard. The NFL lines are usually pretty tight as it's so widely wagered on, and good information about the games is freely available to everyone. But I've been thinking about two potential areas those with better statsitical chops than me might be able to exploit.
One thing I've noticed is the point spread correlates almost 100 percent with the game's moneyline. That is, if the spread is 10, the implied moneyline (what you get when you average the favorite's and underdog's lines, thereby ironing out the rake) will give that team roughly an implied 83 percent chance to win. If the spread is nine, it'll be closer to 79 percent. This is virtually always the case. Put differently, you'll never see the nine-point favorite have a moneyline that gives it an i
Subscribe to RotoWire now and you'll be reading the full version of this article in minutes.
At RotoWire, we give our subscribers everything. That means not only will you be able to read this article, you'll be able to read ALL our articles.
Plus, you'll get all of these great benefits:
|➤ Amazing draft kits.
|| ➤ Full stat projections.
|➤ Exclusive cheat sheets.
|| ➤ Customizable rankings.
|➤ Instant news updates.
|| ➤ Free multi-sport access.
|➤ Private expert Q&A.
|| ➤ And much more!
Get Access To RotoWire Now
Already Registered? Login Now
If you already have a RotoWire account, please login below with your username and password.
Forgot your password?
Click here to have your user info emailed to you.
Questions? Need Assistance?
Talk to a live person toll free at (888) 201-3057.